surprised

me, i'm surprised to see mike lowell get traded. and surprised that it was just for a catching prospect; perhaps they're concerned about victor martinez long term. and i'm surprised that the sox let rich harden go to the rangers so cheaply and didn't put get any pitching lately. surprised they got boof bonser (and no, he does not count as "any pitching"). surprised at their nonchalance after the granderson-to-the-yankees deal. and surprised that they haven't gone harder after bay. maybe they have concerns about him as well. honestly, right now i'm on the edge of my seat trying to figure out what they're planning and whether it'll work. about the only thing i'm convinced that they are not doing is trading prospects. they just don't seem to have enough right now to spare any. some scenarios:

* go w/ older veterans on shorter contracts as a bridge to 2011 (delgado maybe, dye or matsui, maybe even tejada).
* hand 1st base to kotchman and send youk back to 3rd as a long-term solution.
* going after longer term solutions like laroche.
* focusing on fielding so much that they're "infatuated w/" the non-hitting adrian beltre (shudder!).
* going after holliday in a big way and letting bay slide; after all, holliday seems built for fenway.

Farewell, Gonzales

totally agree w/ the globe about alex gonzales. there was no reason to let him go when he was willing to sign a reasonable 1-year deal and the sox should've pounced to keep him. in fact, i wonder if theo's a bit too deliberate in some cases. he should've pounced on damon and texeira too. on the other hand, deliberation would've helped in the case of one julio lugo, so who knows.

if i'm epstein

these are my priorities for the off-season:

* re-sign jason bay
* either sign rich harden or trade for halladay, with the latter preferred only if you can work out an extension with him. si.com thinks this is possible but they'd have to trade buchholz.
* dip into the bargain bin for a ss who can catch the ball: gonazales, everett, cora.
* explore trading lowell to the phillies, which would open up younger possibilities at 1st, such as laroche.
* bring back wagner or sign mike gonzales.

i don't see the padres trading gonzales to the sox and i think the sox need another top flight starter more than they need another bat. peter gammons recently tweeted:

"David Oritz admonishes Red Sox for not adding power. 2007 WS year they scored 867 runs, hit 166 HR. In 2009 scored 872 runs, hit 212 HR."

cool animation

w/ dock ellis' narration of his no hitter back in the early '70s:

alds games 1 and 2

was working at springsteen shows. game 1, didn't have many chances to check the score and was feeling good w lester going. not shocked that they lost it and figured we could get out of anaheim at 1-1.

game 2, i did frequently check the score. this was a double heartbreaker since the twins were up 3-1, then the yankees came back to tie. then, they had runners in scoring position twice and were unable to capitalize when a-rod won the game. the twins are officially cooked.

sox were up 1-0 but then beckett unraveled and sox couldn't score again. by the time i was waiting in the car, i was watching 2 runners on base in the bottom of the 9th but the sox still couldn't tie it.

we play much better at home, but kazmir's a sox killer. at this point, i think they keep it alive but these are not your 2007 or 2008 angels, by any means. they are much tougher. i mean, kazmir is your #3? abreu/hunter/vlad? yikes.

ESPN Sim Gives Sox 60% Chance of Beating Angels

Rob Neyer blogs that Vegas oddsmakers pick the Yankees to go all the way, but at least ESPN's simulator gives the Sox a 58% chance of beating the Angels:

And what of the last Division Series? It's not nearly as close as I would have guessed, with the Red Sox winning 583 of 1,000 series. Of course, it's tempting to pick the Angels because surely we'll have one upset, right? Except of course that's not the way the world works. What happens between the Red Sox and the Angels is completely independent of what happens between the Phillies and the Rockies. The Red Sox played better than the Angels this season, and they played better than the Angels last season.

The simulation doesn't know (or doesn't care) that the Red Sox are 9-1 against the Angels in their three Division Series matchups. The sim just knows that the Red Sox are the better, more talented team.

Cardinals Brendan Ryan rocks the stache

Cardinals 3B Brendan Ryan may have to be my new favorite NL player for his '20s/'80s throwback mustache and sox pulled up. in fact, he's in the running for the American Mustache Institute's Robert Goulet Memorial Mustached American of the Year, according to AP

he could be mistaken for a hipster w/ that stache!:

wait, didn't i see that guy serving a sidecar at bar tano or an old fashioned at hotel delmano? was he at the governor's island jazz age picnic? no?!

the cardinals blog rick ankiel's mustache says, in the wake of last night's loss to the dodgers, "If only Brendan Ryan’s ‘stache could bring in some damn runs."

my predictions

sox over angels in 5
yankees over sox in 6
yankees over phils in 6

espn.com mostly picks the yankees but the cardinals and sox are the next tier.

Youk is too intense?

So say some of his teammates in this article.

Also, this gem is on page 2:

"Look, he hit me with a helmet once. I don’t want to get hit with a helmet." –Tito, re: Youk's intensity

Sox Blogs

a few links to other Sox fan blogs based in NY:

Boston Red Thoughts
A Sox Fan In Hell
Red Sox Fan From Pinstripe Territory

John Kruk likes the Red Sox

ESPN's resident Baseball Tonight expert/hot dog eating champion John Kruk writes:

"Which of the teams likely headed to the playoffs have the most to figure out in the next two weeks? All of them except the Boston Red Sox...

Boston is really the only team heading into the postseason that you can look at and say, "This team is ready for the playoffs." Aside from the middle relief, which hasn't been too good, Jon Lester is pitching well and Daisuke Matsuzaka has looked good. The Sox look to me to be the one, of all the teams likely headed to the postseason, that is the most dolled up and ready to play in the playoffs."

Theo on Pap

remarking on his comments about Billy Wagner:

“I think Pap feels he was misunderstood,’’ Epstein said. “He’s not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with. When I talked to him directly about it, he couldn’t have been more excited."

Bats Alive!

After Gonzo & Youk's home runs off Burnett today, "[t]he Sox have at least two home runs in eight consecutive games, the longest streak in team history." —Boston.com Extra Bases Blog

Francona still nervous/excited during the race

from today's globe:

“It’s an unbelievable feeling,’’ Francona said. “I mean, I wish we were 40 games over .500, whatever, 50, I wish we hadn’t lost any games this year. But coming to the ballpark this time of year, being nervous, is an unbelievable feeling.

“When I was in Philadelphia, it was my biggest - I was almost jealous. I mean, you get to September and you look at teams that were just beat up. Like on a Sunday day game, and we’re out there trying to tell ourselves we’re going to try to win today and be the spoiler.

“You know what? [Expletive] that. That’s not that much fun. Being in it, where you’ve got guys, you move a guy from second and it’s a big deal, it’s a lot of fun. It’s not always a lot of fun, ’cause when you lose, it crushes you, but that part is, I love that part of that.’’

Tazawa gets solid marks

from espn.com's keith law:

Tazawa ready to be solid part of Red Sox rotation
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Lost in the shuffle amid Kevin Youkilis' meltdown was a very promising debut start from Junichi Tazawa, who went five innings for the win against the Detroit Tigers. (He now has the tough-to-maintain decisions/games ratio of 1.)

Tazawa was nervous in the first inning and couldn't command his fastball or get consistent break on his curveball, and his nerves were compounded by the Keystone Kops routine by Dustin Pedroia and Nick Green behind him. After the first inning, his command improved, and in his final three innings he pitched confidently and showed a sharper, more consistent curve, mostly 72-78 mph, with good depth and a tighter break. His fastball is average at 89-91 with a little tail, but it's flat and he's going to have to locate it well. He also throws an above-average splitter at 79-81 mph with good bottom, and he could stand to throw it more often, as it really looks like the fastball out of his hand and should be a weapon against hitters on both sides of the plate.
Tazawa's delivery looks odd and his arm action is long -- follow how far his hand travels from when he takes it out of the glove until he brings it forward toward his release point -- but it actually works well. He repeats it, generates good momentum toward the plate and, aside from the length, doesn't have any obvious problems in the delivery. The average fastball/plus secondary stuff combination can work in a big league rotation, but where it fits depends largely on command.
The Junichi Tazawa who threw in third, fourth and fifth innings on Tuesday night would be a solid No. 3 starter in a good rotation, and if his confidence builds off this outing he should be an asset to the Red Sox for the rest of this season.

Twilight Zone

Five minutes ago, the Sox were trailing Detroit 3-0, and the Yankees were leading the Jays 3-0. Now, both games are tied. Coincidence?

p.s. Youk ejected for charging the mound after getting hit -- is it fair to accuse him of being selfish? Losing a hitter as valuable as Youk is very serious at this point, especially when it forces the infirm Lowell to play on a day off.

So that happened

Well, it wasn't the best match-up going in, but sad to see the old horse ready to be put to pasture. It's been a great career for Smoltz and he'll be in the Hall of Fame, but it may be sooner than he thinks.

Silver lining was scoring 6 runs off the Yankees and 4 off Chamberlain.

Better match-up tomorrow.

Also, on Aug 29 the Yankees are giving free calculators to the first 18,000 kids in the stands. Are they that desperate to sell tickets?

if they split this weekend, i'll be happy.

Sox sign Paul Byrd

We know how it worked out in '08 with the soft tosser. Are they getting desperate for starting pitching?

New Stat Model for Comparing Baseball Players

As described in this article on Wired.com, a group of statisticians have developed a new model for comparing baseball players across teams, seasons and even eras. The math is both apparently very complex and also not described in the article, but apparently the system uses a variant on the six-degrees-of-Kevin-Bacon idea to compare players:

"Hank Aaron can be set beside Barry Bonds — not just according to how they each did against Nolan Ryan, though that would be part of the score, but according to how each did against every pitcher they ever faced, and how each of those pitchers did against every hitter, so long as some series of links connected the two sluggers."

The model is incomplete, especially given that it doesn't account for park effects (Todd Helton is the second-greatest hitter of all time) and PEDs (Barry Bonds is the greatest), but it is of note to Sox fans; of the ten greatest starters of the modern era, four are now or have been members of the Red Sox (and we just missed out on another):

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Roger Clemens
3. Roy Halladay
4. Curt Schilling
5. Sandy Koufax
6. Randy Johnson
7. John Smoltz
8. Mike Mussina
9. J.R. Richard
10. Greg Maddux

Olney on '08 Sox

from ESPN.com:

Victor Martinez gives the Red Sox so much flexibility in so many different ways for 2010, when the Boston front office will begin to decide what to do with Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell and others. But the Red Sox's lineup is kind of morphing into something like the Yankees' lineup from 2004 to 2007. The team is stacked with big and slow hitters. It's hard to imagine that the Red Sox's adept front office won't try to pick up younger and more athletic position players this offseason.

I believe him

here's the statement:

Today I was informed by a reporter that I was on the 2003 list of MLB players to test positive for performance-enhancing substances. This happened right before our game, and the news blindsided me. I said I had no comment because I wanted to get to the bottom of this.

I want to talk about this situation and I will as soon as I have more answers. In the meantime I want to let you know how I am approaching this situation. One, I have already contacted the Players Association to confirm if this report is true. I have just been told that the report is true. Based on the way I have lived my life, I am surprised to learn I tested positive. Two, I will find out what I tested positive for. And, three, based on whatever I learn, I will share this information with my club and the public. You know me - I will not hide and I will not make excuses.

I want to thank my family, the Red Sox, my teammates, and the fans for their patience and support.

Say It Ain't So, Papi

NY Times reports Manny and Ortiz did steroids in '03, according to "lawyers."

State of The Mets

From NY Times:

from peter gammons

One scout claims that 19-year-old Red Sox prospect Casey Kelly is the best young pitcher he has seen in two years. But Kelly is excited that he'll report Wednesday to the Gulf Coast League to play shortstop. "I still want to try to play every day," said Kelly, who is 7-5 with a 2.11 ERA, 74-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 0.85 WHIP for Greenville and Salem in his first pro season. The Red Sox expect Kelly to pitch full time eventually.

The Red Sox really like 21-year-old shortstop Yamaico Navarro, who is hitting .319 at Salem after missing four months with a hamate bone injury. They also just spent $10.2 million on two international shortstops: Jose Iglesias of Cuba for $8.2 million, and 16-year-old Jose Vinicio of the Dominican Republic for $2 million.

Obama At The All-Star Game

Buy Me Some Eel and Crackerjacks

amazing article in the NY Times about Japanese ballparks and fans. excerpts:

Led by cheer captains in the outfield bleachers, the batting team’s fans chanted, sang and rhythmically banged plastic bats for every pitch to every batter. Their deafening, synchronized roar dominated the dome. Each hit ignited a burst of still louder cheers and frantic towel waving.

“It’s a manifestation of perfectionism,” said Robert Whiting, the author of several books on Japanese culture and baseball. “If you are going to be a fan, then you have to go all the way.”

Yet the fans of the team in the field maintained a respectful hush, interrupted only by an exuberant wave of applause after each out. Questionable calls were never booed. No jeers rang out when an error was made. These fans radiated only love for their teams.

...

The long lines that are common at concession stands in American ballparks are blissfully absent. Perhaps that is because Japan has beer girls.

Running up and down the aisles with pony kegs strapped to their backs, the smiling young girls are easy to spot in their colorful uniforms and matching caps (not to mention their shorts with hemlines as short as sartorially possible). In a subtle nod to Daisuke Matsuzaka, a favorite Japanese player now pitching in the United States, one girl selling Asahi beer — and practically glowing in her neon orange, lime green and royal blue uniform — had a Red Sox towel tucked into her shirt and matching bright red knee-socks.

Some Pedroia Perspective

"[The Orioles] are coming back, [expletive] Luke Scott's over there swinging like seven bats. I go out to the mound to get Paps and, before I can take Ramon out, Pedey says, 'You look like a moron.' " -- Terry Francona, 6/30/09

No Hitter on LSD?

It happened in 1970, supposedly, by Dock Ellis of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Todd Snider's got a great new song about it on 'The Excitement Plan' (a record I've been enjoying). He explains on NPR today.

New Cubs Documentary

hmm, i wonder where they got that title...

great baseball names, pt. 325235

Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher

Big Papi debuts hot sauce

Sox win again on a nail-biter. Meanwhile, Ortiz debuts a new hot sauce line:

Original En Fuego, Monster Double En Fuego, Off the Wall Triple En Fuego, and Grand Slam En Fuego (from mildest to spiciest). It's gotta be better than the wine he came out with in 2006. Proceeds go to health care for children in New England and the Dominican Republic, apparently. I will probably not be the last to suggest that perhaps Grand Slam En Fuego is the cure to Ortiz' slump.

Reverse Curse Attempt The Worst

From NY Post:

Ian Ferris, 30, a Bombers fan in the heart of Red Sox Nation, green-thumbed his nose at Boston by planting Yankee Stadium grass in the Fenway infield during a May 31 Phish concert.
Yankee Stadium grass seeds went on sale this year. Ferris hid the seeds in his pants as he entered Fenway, filled the bag with water and tossed it onto the infield.

"This is payback," said Ferris, who manages a Hooters in Vermont. "If even one blade of grass sprouts on the field, I feel it was a success."

[insert hooters joke here]

usa today on big papi

big feature yesterday.

tidbits:

Bay knew life was going to be different when he walked through Boston's Logan International Airport and heard an announcement over the public-address system: "Jason Bay, your bags from Pittsburgh are coming in on Carousel 13. Welcome to Red Sox Nation."

.....

Papi: "What I do know is that I'm not done. Trust me. I am not finished."

.....

Ortiz's mailbox is stuffed each day with suggestions. Even games he gets a single hit, his cellphone is filled with messages from friends around the country.

"If I ever get four hits in a game," Ortiz says, "I'm going to have to get a new phone because mine will blow up."

.....

"I'm the same guy I've always been," Ortiz says. "I'm the same guy now as when I was hitting 50 home runs. I don't change. I never talked (stuff).

"If my (4-year-old) kid decides to play baseball, I want people to say, 'His last name is Ortiz. I remember his dad. He was a good player.

" 'But you know what, he was even a better person.' What could be better than that?"

this is why we love him. well, that big smile and also all those clutch home runs. i take his word for it. the game ain't over 'til big papi swings.

great game

papi homered. beckett was briliant. sox shut out the yankees; yanks' first blank of the season. sox are now 6-0 against their rivals this year.

The Onion - Manny Ramirez To David Ortiz: 'Road Trip'

I swear there's a Sox fan at the Onion. This piece is hysterical.

"Everybody's left me, you know?" Ortiz responded, tears streaming down his face. "You left me, Pedro left me. The only one who doesn't leave is Jason [Varitek], and he don't talk to me. He don't talk to anyone."

Nick Johnson in Boston?

Could Nick Johnson be the answer? Perhaps DHing could keep him off the DL. Buster Olney likes the fit.

"Johnson has a .434 on-base percentage and a career-high .330 batting average, and two scouts talked on Thursday about how his swing would be absolutely tailor-made for Fenway Park. 'He'd play pepper with the left-field wall,' one NL scout said."

Big Papi Debate Continues

from the desk of Jayson Stark

ESPN.com notes:

The Smoltz watch: Scouts who have seen John Smoltz's rehab starts report that he's showing the effects of his shoulder surgery, but that doesn't mean he can't make an impact on the Red Sox in the second half.
"He's not as free and easy as he used to be," one scout said. "He's got to force and push more than he used to. And his velocity is 86 to 91 [mph] on the fastball, and 81-82-83 on the slider. But he still has command. He still has the will. And he still shows you he can make the big pitch when he has to. So he's probably more like a fourth starter than a No. 1. But he's a guy who could give them some good outings down the road."

More insight from America's foremost scouting minds:

On Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon: "It's just fastball after fastball. It's almost like he wants to be Mariano Rivera and show he can be a great one-pitch closer, and he can't do it. He's got good secondary stuff. He just doesn't use it as much as he should."

trade turned down

from peter gammons:

Boston wants to wait on David Ortiz and tabled a proposal of [Nick] Johnson for Manny Delcarmen.

DH platoon?

looking at papi's 2008 stats, he hit .221 against lefties w/ an obp of .308. against righties, he hit .279 w/ an obp of /389 and a slugging percentage of /532. so perhaps we should sit papi against lefties. jeff bailey has hammered lefties thus far this season, hitting .412 and slugging .765, albeit in only 17 at bats. is this the solution to our DH dilemma?

varitek hitting for power

he's slugging .514. that hasn't happened since, uh, er, never.

papi homers!

Bob Ryan on Papi

keith foulke: comeback, take 2

he plays for the newark bears in the atlantic league now. interesting article in the globe about it. foulke on ramirez winning the 2004 world series mvp:

"Do I think I should have been MVP?" says Foulke. "Absolutely. I mean, 'cause I did everything humanly possible that I could've done."

once a prick, always a prick. still, we'll always have '04.

from espn.com's buster olney

The Red Sox are not looking for a hitter yet, but at some point, Boston is going to need some offensive production from David Ortiz. The Red Sox could live with him if he were hitting .250 or .260 with some power, but so far, he's been nothing short of awful. Boston ranks dead last in OPS among designated hitters in the majors, and of course, Boston is the only team that has not gotten a single home run from the DH spot.
In a division that contains four strong contenders, there is very little margin for error, and the Red Sox cannot continue to lose run production in big spots because Ortiz is not hitting, as they did last week.

i take it back

nick green has 8 errors and it's not even june. get him outta here!

ideas

time to drop big papi down to 5th in the order.

when dice-k comes back, let lester start and throw 4 innings and then dice-k relieve and throw 4. after all the innings thrown last season, both guys need a rest.

saito's all well and good but let ramon ramirez be the backup closer. that dude is lights out.

ellsbury has worn out the leadoff spot and should be dropped to 8th or 9th.

where is nick green? lugo's still a game-losing error waiting to happen.

do we have a lefty killer in the pen?

jason bay for mvp.

jeff bailey should swap places with chris carter.

daniel bard. wow.

Doug Mirabelli's new career

is in real estate. We'll always have '04, Dougie.

Ortiz

went 0 for 7 and stranded 12 base runners. getting worried.

from the onion...

"Curt Schilling Just Appeared On Your Gchat"

A Penny Saved

ESPN.com's Buster Olney has an idea I support on how to maximize Penny's worth:

Something to watch: Boston's pitching surplus might lead to an early-season trade. Clay Buchholz has been absolutely dominant in the minors so far this year, and very soon, Daisuke Matsuzaka will return to the big leagues.
Eventually, it figures that Justin Masterson will go back to the Boston bullpen, and that will create the spot in the rotation for Matsuzaka. If the Red Sox want to create another for Buchholz, they would always have the option of taking offers for a veteran pitcher who has had quality starts in four of his six outings. That guy is Brad Penny, who might be a nice fit for a team like the Milwaukee Brewers or the Mets. That's all speculation at this point.

Once a Red Sox, Always a Red Sox

RIP Dom DiMaggio, great Sox center fielder of the 1940s, who passed away watching the team he loved. If he hadn't been injured at the end of the 1946 World Series, we would've beaten the Cardinals.

sox reaction to manny news

Manny Juices

ESPN is reporting that Manny was caught taking steroids. Did he take them in 04 or 07? Does this taint the Sox' victories?

from Gammons

The Red Sox this week asked John Smoltz to slow down his rehab. Smoltz, who will join the club this weekend and be examined by strength and conditioning coach Mike Reinhold, insists it is nothing major. "I will be pitching in June," Smoltz texted.

are the blue jays for real?

best run differential in the AL east.

plus, batters are hitting only .197 off their bullpen. wow.

liking nick green

but 6 errors in 17 games?!

good news/bad news

Josh Bard’s WHIP at AAA: 0.55. Michael Bowden’s ERA at AAA: 0.64.

Our MLB-level starters have a 5.52 ERA thus far w/ a 1.58 WHIP.

Yikes.

will the real

josh beckett please stand up?

which edition is this?

what's wrong w/ his command?

you know things are bad when your ace starts a game and your right fielder has to come in to finish pitching it. oh, and when you only get one hit all night.

paging clay bucholz!

but hey, i like masterson, who's going tonight. momentum is as good as your next day's pitcher, right?

alternate history

yahoo ponders what would've been had the a-rod trade to the sox been culminated in winter 03-04. oddly, he thinks it would've been a success. well, if this whole column isn't entirely ironic, that is.

sox slam the door

in a marathon series sweep, many highlights:

bay's home run off rivera in the 9th on friday to tie
youk's home run to win on fri
varitek's grand slam and lowell making them pay for the intentional walk twice yesterday
the bullpen keeping the game within striking distance when beckett failed
today: two rookies come out of the bullpen to hold the game
perhaps most exciting: ellsbury steals home plate!

i love this team. in other news, thus far on the young season, the yankees have given up more runs than they've scored. if you compare the bullpens, the sox have a distinct advantage.

Now pitching: Jeff Tweedy?

Jeff Tweedy of Wilco threw out the first pitch for the Milwaukee Brewers the other day. Later that night, the Brewers lost. As Tweedy sings in "War on War":

"You have to lose
You have to learn how to die
If you want to want to be alive"

fitting for the Brewers.

rain delays

suck.

papi's slump

article in the ny times. key question: "will he be mo vaughn or carlos delgado?"

bandbox in the bronx?

maybe that ortiz jersey buried in the concrete at the new yankee stadium did work. it looks like the place plays very differently from the old stadium. espn.com's buster olney writes about how it may be hell on pitchers.

happy patriots' day

12-1 red sox win over the orioles. tek homers. hunter jones makes his mlb debut, throwing a hitless 9th. ortiz goes 2 for 4, including a triple.

please?

will you please hit the ball?

our opponents have scored 37 runs, which is 2nd in the AL east. we have scored 24 runs, which is dead last in the AL east. no surprise: we're also dead last in the AL east.

too early for panic?

Angels Rookie Dies In Car Accident

Angels #3 starter Nick Adenhart died after his car was hit by a minivan.

Phillies Fans Boo During Ring Ceremony

I mean, I know it's Adam Eaton who stunk and got left off the playoff roster then released, but your team won the World Series and you're booing? What?!

more fun w/ commercials

ambidextrous yankee prospect

really interesting story in newsday about this kid

am i the only one

who thinks that brad penny will get chopped up and eaten alive by the AL east?

L Mag's MLB preview

is hysterical.

my al east picks

this is what i think will happen, not what i'd like to happen:

first place - yankees
second place/wild card - red sox
third place - rays
fourth place - orioles
fifth place - blue jays

sox vs. yankees alcs w/ yankees winning.
yankees win world series.

jason stark picks sox over yanks

from espn.com could there be another alcs head-to-head in store for these two teams?:

Didn't you know it would come down to this? First, we'd like to invite Aaron Boone, Pedro, Don Zimmer, Grady Little, Bucky Dent and Mike Torrez to sit together in our VIP box for the entire series. Now let's try to sort this out.

The Red Sox are far from perfect. We acknowledge that. They're a middle-of-the-order bat short, and they told us that when they threw all those bucks at Mark Teixeira. So they've never needed David Ortiz more than they do this year.

"Big Papi is a big question mark," one scout said. "He's got to have a bigger presence and bigger production to give the rest of that lineup the confidence it can score runs. Mike Lowell has to have a better year. Jason Bay has to hit. J.D. [Drew] has to stay healthy. There are a lot of question marks there."

But now let's go back to those three pivotal questions: Who has more depth (especially pitching depth)? Who has the better bullpen? Which group feels more like a team?

We hate to break it to the Steinbrenner family, but the Yankees aren't the answer to any of those questions.

"That [Yankees] rotation is so good that it's hard to imagine a situation where their starting pitching isn't dominant," one panelist said. "But you can easily envision a situation where their options in the seventh and eighth inning aren't dominant."

"The closer is still great, but beyond that, that bullpen is very unproven," another panelist said. "[Brian] Bruney looked like a shaky guy this spring. [Damaso] Marte -- I'm not sure how much trust to put in a guy like that in a town like New York. And I'm not sure where they turn if those guys can't do it. Compare that to the Red Sox, with all the depth in their bullpen, and it's not even close."

And even in the rotation, said another panelist, the Red Sox have one subtle, but significant, advantage -- their sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth starters.

"I'd take Boston, just because of [John] Smoltz and [Brad] Penny and [Clay] Buchholz as much as anything else," he said. "And because of their pitching depth, they have the ability to go out in the second half and get whatever they need."

The Red Sox pieces also seem to fit together better than the Yankees' pieces. A-Rod's injury has already elevated to Cody Ransom to a role he was never supposed to have to assume. Now what happens if Jorge Posada can't catch regularly? If Posada has to DH, what happens to Hideki Matsui? Will Nick Swisher accept life as a bench player? Where do they turn if Derek Jeter gets hurt? Or Robinson Cano?

This is also a team with second-tier defense at way too many positions on the field. And that's if everybody stays healthy. So the Yankees' worst-case scenarios can get awfully messy.

"To me," said one scout, "the Yankees feel more like a bunch of stars who happen to be playing together than a real baseball team."

"With the Yankees, you always wonder about their chemistry," another panelist said. "If you think that's been one of their problems in the past -- and I do -- you can see where it might not be a good situation this year. And wait 'til A-Rod shows up. At some point, that black cloud is coming back. And how will they handle that?"

When you have pitching, of course, it's amazing what you can handle. But if we stack up one team's negatives alongside the other team's negatives, the Yankees clearly have the bigger pile.

So that leaves the Red Sox. They're the one team we haven't voted off this island. And that means they're our pick. By process of elimination. Literally.

Now feel free to head straight to Vegas and tell them we told you the Boston Red Sox are going to win the 2009 World Series.

Then they'll look over our record of predictions over the years, laugh uproariously for the next 15 minutes and gladly take all your money. But hey, better yours than ours.

low-budget tv commercial saturday

man, i love low budget new england commercials:

sox top espn.com's power rankings

rays 2nd and yanks 3rd

sox, yanks, rays: position-by-position comparison

really fun tool at boston.com

yankees now priciest seat in baseball

from espn.com:

The Team Marketing Report released its annual survey Thursday and said the average price of a Yankees home ticket was a major league-high $72.97, a 76.3 percent increase from last year's $41.40.

The Boston Red Sox, who had been first for 13 consecutive years, were next at $50.24 following a 0.3 percent rise. The Cubs were third at $47.75 after a 10 percent hike, followed by the New York Mets, who rose 8.6 percent to $36.99 for their first season at Citi Field.

gammons on the sox' young players

Young players who impressed the most this spring

Friday, April 3, 2009

This year's spring training wore on for close to two months, with lineups that were second cousins of the '95 replacement players. But it gave general managers, managers, coaches, scouts and some of us hangers-on a chance to see a lot more young players than most springs.

So that begged four questions that were asked of close to five dozen baseball people who saw all these young players:

Question 1: Which young players have made major impressions on you?

9. Daniel Bard, Red Sox right-handed pitcher. Two years ago, Bard went through a nightmare by issuing 78 walks in 76 innings pitched. This spring the refrain through the southwest portion of Florida was "the easiest 100 [mph] I've ever seen." His presence changed, he got up on top, his breaking ball tightened and that 97-102 comes out of his hand so easily that it looks as if he's playing catch with his mother. Just a matter of time before he'll be pitching in Boston.

15. Junichi Tazawa, Red Sox right-handed pitcher. This was the biggest surprise of the spring. Signed out of an industrial league in Japan, the 22-year-old shocked people with his stuff, command (he threw one ball per inning in his last two minor league starts). "He'd have been in the top six to 10 in this June's draft," says one scout, "and his feel might have moved him him into the top five."

Question 3: Which players coming off injuries convinced you they are back?

8. Brad Penny, RHP, Red Sox

Question 4: Who had the best arm you saw this spring?

This wasn't close. Boston's Daniel Bard got three times as many votes as anyone else. Actually, tied for second were a catcher (Carlos Santana) and an outfielder (Rick Ankiel), although the latter doesn't qualify as a kid.

1. Daniel Bard, RHP, Red Sox

Sports Illustrated Season Picks

Six SI reporters pick the Sox to take the AL; two pick the Yankees and two pick the Rays.

Four pick the Sox to go all the way.

(Thanks, Alan.)

how to measure defense

fascinating article on espn.com

Orioles announcers leave early

Oops! Duped by a rain delay, Orioles radio announcers left after one inning. Are things that sad in Baltimore?

media notes

Boston Globe's top 10 game-changers:

7. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox - "Defies logic, but maybe the toughest SOB in the game," said an AL assistant GM. "Watch some of the balls he hits and explain to me how he gets the barrel of the bat on the ball. Amazing. You can make the greatest pitch ever to this guy and he'll beat you." Pedroia also got rave reviews for his defense. "He has made individual plays at second base that have won ballgames," said an AL East infielder.

Peter Gammons from ESPN.com:

Boston has two No. 1 starters in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. The Sox have Daisuke Matsuzaka and his 18-3 record of 2008. They may try to cut back on 42-year-old Tim Wakefield's innings, but Terry Francona says they may not need a fifth starter until early May. And Brad Penny not only threw 91-94 mph during Friday's minor league outing, enough to impress Francona and pitching coach John Farrell, but he also said, "That's the best my shoulder has felt in a couple of years." Clay Buchholz has learned to drive his fastball down in the strike zone. They love Michael Bowden. John Smoltz is agreeing to stick to his June timetable. And Justin Masterson can always start.
The difference for the Red Sox is that they have the following in front of Jonathan Papelbon: Takashi Saito, Ramon Ramirez, Masterson, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, Javier Lopez and, in time, Daniel Bard with his easy 97-102 mph fastball.
"That," says one scout, "has a chance to be the best 'pen in the league."

predicting papi

espn.com fantasy article predicts a line of .275-30-100-100 for big papi. i think he can best that. also, take a look at these numbers w/ runners in scoring position. unbelievably clutch:

2003: 163 PAs, .273 BA, .368 OBP, .482 SLG, .850 OPS, 65 RBIs (one per 2.51 PAs)
2004: 197 PAs, .350 BA, .431 OBP, .594 SLG, 1.025 OPS, 90 RBIs (2.19)
2005: 212 PAs, .352 BA, .462 OBP, .580 SLG, 1.043 OPS, 92 RBIs (2.30)
2006: 203 PAs, .288 BA, .429 OBP, .538 SLG, .967 OPS, 79 RBIs (2.57)
2007: 192 PAs, .362 BA, .490 OBP, .658 SLG, 1.147 OPS, 77 RBIs (2.49)
2008: 159 PAs, .332 BA, .447 OBP, .680 SLG, 1.126 OPS, 71 RBIs (2.24)

now that he's a dodger, i can root for joe torre.

from roger angell's review of the new book the yankee years in the new yorker comes this tidbit. after the sox won game 7 against the yankees in 2004, torre called francona to congratulate him, then asked to speak to wakefield. we all know that wake lost game 7 in 2003 after grady little left pedro in to fry. "i'll never forget that phone call," says wakefield.

Manny speaks

"Sometimes you're better off to have a two-year deal in a place that you're gonna be happy than have an eight-year deal in a place that you're gonna, you know, suffer."

so he was suffering in boston?

what a dipshit.

spring training invitations

cool article on espn.com about veterans trying to stick w/ new teams, with a couple of old friends in it. former sox kevin millar (blue jays), matt clement (blue jays), scott williamson (tigers), trot nixon (brewers), and tony graffanino (indians) are trying to make their teams

Dontrelle Willis comeback story

on ESPN.com. Very interesting stuff. And the writer is right; I root for him to succeed; he's only 27 and it's a mystery why his stuff has vanished.

Red Sox's Pitching Program

Fascinating article on the Red Sox's "shoulder program" for pitchers in yesterday's Globe by Amalie Benjamin.

from the onion...

Scott Boras Able To Get Manny Ramirez $20 Billion In Economic Stimulus Money

smoltz aka fuck yeah!

espn.com's spring training preview excerpts

Most important injury comebacks

1. John Smoltz (Red Sox)
2. Brad Penny (Red Sox)
3. Takashi Saito (Red Sox)
4. David Ortiz (Red Sox)
5. Mike Lowell (Red Sox)
6. Rocco Baldelli (Red Sox)

FUN POLL FACTS: The Red Sox spent only $23.1 million on free agents -- but those extensions to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis inflate their winter IOUs to $105.65 million

Best free agents $2 million and under:

(1) The Red Sox take a one-year, $500,000 chance on Rocco Baldelli's odds of finding health and happiness in New England; (2) the White Sox hope the $1 million they tossed Bartolo Colon's way buys them some semblance of what used to be a Cy Young winner, and (3) the Red Sox guarantee a mere $1.5 million to a reliever (Takashi Saito) who, when healthier, spent the last three seasons turning all the hitters on earth into Gookie Dawkins (numbers of opposing hitters: .182 average, .246 on-base percentage, .264 slugging percentage).

espn.com's spring training preview excerpts

Most important injury comebacks

1. John Smoltz (Red Sox)
2. Brad Penny (Red Sox)
3. Takashi Saito (Red Sox)
4. David Ortiz (Red Sox)
5. Mike Lowell (Red Sox)
6. Rocco Baldelli (Red Sox)

Projected Standing

Baseball Prospectus has projected the 2009 standing and the Sox edge out the Yankees for first by one game, ending at 98 wins. Further, they project the Sox to outscore the Yankees 864 to 838 over the entire season. The Rays finish a distant third.

Pitchers and catchers will be in Florida soon. So it begins.