Rob Neyer blogs that Vegas oddsmakers pick the Yankees to go all the way, but at least ESPN's simulator gives the Sox a 58% chance of beating the Angels:
And what of the last Division Series? It's not nearly as close as I would have guessed, with the Red Sox winning 583 of 1,000 series. Of course, it's tempting to pick the Angels because surely we'll have one upset, right? Except of course that's not the way the world works. What happens between the Red Sox and the Angels is completely independent of what happens between the Phillies and the Rockies. The Red Sox played better than the Angels this season, and they played better than the Angels last season.
The simulation doesn't know (or doesn't care) that the Red Sox are 9-1 against the Angels in their three Division Series matchups. The sim just knows that the Red Sox are the better, more talented team.
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