Are injuries really to blame or are Beckett and Lackey?

A Red Sox Fan From Pinstripe Territory points out that combined, Lackey and Beckett are 5-12 since August 1. It's starting to seem as if the offensive injuries did not sink the team as much as unreliable pitching from those two starters. We still don't seem to have an explanation about what's wrong with those two expen$ive players, except that they seem to not be able to locate their pitches these days. 2011 will also depend heavily on those two.

What's with Lackey?

So far on the season, John Lackey has an ERA of 4.65 and a WHIP of 1.58, and opponents are hitting .296/.363/.443 against him (for reference, in 2009, All-Star Dustin Pedroia hit a nearly-identical .296/.371/.447). So what gives?

For starters, his walks/9 are up (from 2.4 to 3.6) and strikeouts/9 are down (from 7.1 to 5.3) relative to last year (which was representative of the previous couple of years). I don't know how to explain that; but here's something that may partially explain his struggles: bad luck. This year, opposing batters are hitting .296 off Lackey, well above 2009's .263 (or his career average of .265). Perhaps not coincidentally, Lackey's BABIP (the percentage of balls put into play that turn into hits) is .330. Does this mean the Sox defense is letting Lackey down by failing to turn batted balls into outs? Well, no -- the league average BABIP this year is .295 (which is roughly what it is every year). By contrast, the BABIP for all hitters facing the Sox this year is .290, meaning the Sox have, for reasons of luck or skill, been slightly more efficient at turning batted balls into outs than the rest of the league. So it's probably not the defense behind him that's causing Lackey's troubles. Indeed, in general, BABIP simply does not vary that much -- with larger sample sizes, it always regresses towards .300 (although it is certainly possible to have such a high BABIP over an entire season, as Lackey did in 2005).

So is it just luck? Probably not -- first, if Lackey's location is poor, as is suggested by his increased walks and decreased strikeouts, perhaps he's leaving more pitches over the plate, leading to hard contact. Second, a high BABIP by itself could not explain all of Lackey's results this season: obviously, it can't explain the walks and strikeouts, but it also can't fully account for the average and slugging percentage of opposing hitters, either: for comparison, in 2005, Lackey's BABIP was .327, just 2 points shy of his current .329. Even so, that year, opposing batters hit only.258/.325/.362 against him.

So what's the upshot here? Lackey's luck may well even out a bit, and his BABIP may go down as the year goes along. Even so, there's no reason to think that hitters won't keep squaring up his pitches until he can start spotting them better.

The Reds & The Blues

really cool article about Elvin Bishop and Dusty Baker and how they met at John Lee Hooker's house and became fishing buddies. Dusty's even presented an award at the Blues Music Awards and hung out with Morgan Freeman, BB King, and Clarence Clemons.

Nava & Beltre

Chad Finn on Daniel Nava:

"Provided he can survive Adrian Beltre's dastardly plan [to] annihilate the rib cage of every Red Sox left fielder, he may get a genuine opportunity here."

Speaking of Beltre, he is currently second in OPS among AL third basemen (.891), behind only Evan Longoria (.960). Who would have thought that in mid-June, Beltre (.336/.370/.521, 8 HR) would be out-hitting A-Rod (.290/.361/.482, 8 HR)?

Lackey: Good Pitcher, Funny Guy

"I couldn't believe that... I mean, he's a great guy, but I was like, you've got to be kidding me." —John Lackey on giving up a home run to former teammate Brandon Wood, currently hitting .176/.195/.259 on the season.

Grand Theft Baseball

interesting article at espn.com about how the sox are in line to give up an historic number of stolen bases this year. buried in the article was a fact that i didn't know; victor martinez had elbow surgery in 2008.

thus far, the season's been tough but i still think they can't possibly be this bad. the new question is, can they make up all that ground and beat the rays and yankees within the division. i'm not sure. i think cameron's looking old, scutaro's looking out of his element, beltre hasn't been hitting or defending as advertised, and ortiz simply looks lost. but i think the pitching will succeed.

The Offense So Far

One week into the season, there does not yet seem to be much reason to worry about the Sox offense as a whole. The Sox lead the AL in average (.282), slugging (.494) and OPS (.831). They are second in home runs (8) and third in runs/game (5.00). This, despite having faced five pitchers (including the reigning Cy Young winner) with an average ERA of 3.80. While it's still early, there is definitely room for cautious optimism.

That said, Sox pitching is giving up 4.6 runs/game so far, with a WHIP of 1.400 (both 11th in the AL).

Joe West, Ron Gardenhire Both Morons

There's been plenty of coverage in the sports media in the past couple of days about ostensibly impartial umpire Joe West's comments ripping the Sox and Yankees for playing too slowly. His remarks were pretty startling, but perhaps more surprising were the comments of Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire, who, when asked about the issue, said:

“We move our games along pretty good, and it’s pretty hard to tell some of those guys, ‘Let’s go, get in the box.’ They just look at you like, ‘Why? I haven’t heard the second verse to my song yet.’ That’s just the way it is.’’

Yes, I'm sure the Sox-Yankees games take 4 hours because all of our mega-buck players are infatuated with their walk-up music. OR, it could be because between them, the Sox and Yankees had 10 of the top 30 players in the American League in Pitches/Plate Appearance in 2009:

Rank / PA / P/PA
1 Kevin Youkilis / BOS / 588 / 4.41

2 Nick Swisher / NYY / 607 / 4.26

7 David Ortiz / BOS / 627 / 4.19

9 J.D.Drew / BOS / 539 / 4.12

14 Johnny Damon / NYY / 626 / 4.06

17 Victor Martinez / BOS / 672 / 4.05

25 Jason Bay / BOS / 638 / 3.99

27 Alex Rodriguez / NYY / 535 / 3.97

30 Dustin Pedroia / BOS / 714 / 3.95

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Sox led the AL in P/PA in 2009. The Twins were league-average in this regard.

p.s. It's notable that Papi was able to maintain such a high P/PA, both in absolute and relative terms, despite his decline. It's also impressive that Youk almost exactly equaled his previous full-season high in P/PA (2006), while increasing his slugging percentage by 120 points from 2006 to 2009.

my predictions

al east:

yankees - 1st place
red sox - WC
rays

al central:

twins

al west:

angels

alds:

yankees over twins
red sox over angels

alcs:

yankees over red sox

ws:

yankees over phillies

basically, a rerun of last year.

NY Times on Sox

NY Times: "It would not be surprising if these Red Sox win the American League East. But it would not be surprising if they finish third, either."

Even Courts Love Fenway

"The . . . ambiguous nature [of the word "building"] might leave a structure like Fenway Park, one of the greatest architectural works ever designed, undeserving of copyright protection . . . ([even though it is] a space used for recreation, business, and, some would say, religion)." –Yankee Candle Co. v. New England Candle Co., 14 F. Supp. 2d 154 (D. Mass 1998) (emphasis added).

BP Picks Sox to Win Division by 2 Games

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system projects the Sox to have the best record in baseball (94–68), beating out the Yankees by 2 games.

Foxsports Yankees vs. Red Sox offseason

Bob Klapish picks the Sox as the winner of the offseason but still picks the Yanks to win the division.

This Just In: Paps Still Crazy

"Got a name [for my second child] picked out. . . . Gunner Roberts. The significance? Nothing, man. Just a badass name, so we went with it."

beltre

i think this is a huge mistake. he may be able to catch the ball, but he can't hit it and you don't win if you don't score. also, he's on the decline, if anything. what was wrong w/ kotchman?

2009 stats: .265 .304 .379